Induced seismicity

If induced seismicity interferes with the use or enjoyment of another's land, then the inducing activity may be a legal nuisance, even if the seismicity causes little physical damage. In most states of the United States owners of land owe a duty of lateral support to adjacent landowners, and, in some states, mineral estate owners and lessees ...

Induced seismicity. The injection-linked seismicity near Jones occurs up to 35 km away from the disposal wells, much further than previously considered in existing criteria for induced seismicity . Modern, very high-rate injection wells can therefore affect regional seismicity and increase seismic hazard.

suggest that induced seismicity is still a challenging issue. • The Groningen gas field in the Netherlands is a good example of small magnitude induced earthquakes (< M 4) that remains a problem in areas with vulnerable buildings. • Seismicity due to hydraulic fracturing in the U.S. and particularly in western

Until now, the way that the risk due to induced seismicity has been managed is very different and has been largely driven by Earth science: implicit assumptions are made regarding the exposure and its fragility, and the risk is then mitigated through schemes to either reduce the hazard at the location of the buildings by either relocating the ...Induced Seismicity & Other Hazards Fault Zone CO2 Migration Hazard during Large-Scale Geologic Carbon Storage in the Miocene Section, Gulf of Mexico L. Saló Salgado, Silva, J. Alves, , , Davis, J. Steven, and Juanes, R. , " Fault Zone CO2 Migration Hazard during Large-Scale Geologic Carbon Storage in the Miocene Section, Gulf of Mexico ...He co-directs SCITS Stanford Center for Induced and Triggered Seismicity (SCITS) and the Stanford Center for Carbon Storage (SCCS). Dr. Zoback conducts research on in situ stress, fault mechanics, and reservoir geomechanics. He is the author/co-author of over 300 technical papers, holder of five patents and author of two books.Some workers distinguish between “ induced ” and “ triggered ” seismicity according to whether all or only part of the strain energy released was anthropogenic, using the term “ induced ” when most of the energy was anthropogenic, and “ triggered ” when it was predominantly of natural origin. Determining the proportion of ...Incorporating Induced Seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model—Results of 2014 Workshop and Sensitivity Studies By Mark D. Petersen, Charles S. Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, Susan M. Hoover, Justin L. Rubinstein, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, William L. Ellsworth, Arthur F. McGarr, Austin A. Holland, and John G. AndersonAlthough induced seismicity related to underground injection activities was first observed in the 1960s at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal near Denver, a dramatic increase in earthquake activity in the midcontinent beginning in 2009 focused attention on the potential hazard posed by earthquakes induced by injection.

Human activities have disrupted the balance of underground coal and rock stresses, increasing the risk of seismicity, with incomplete statistics suggesting that 37% of human-induced seismicity is caused by mining (Wilson et al. 2017).To reduce these risks associated with mining operations, many seismology and mining researchers have …Day in and day out, we take in a lot of upsetting or anxiety-inducing news. In all likelihood, many of us have been practicing this unhealthy habit of consuming large quantities of negative news without naming it — or, in some cases, withou...7 jul 2023 ... A recently published study presents a model that simulates the mechanisms that may have caused induced seismicity at the EGS project in ...Mar 22, 2021 · Induced seismicity. As industrial projects have expanded, and new technologies become available, we have seen a sharp rise in both the frequency and scale of human-induced earthquakes. Whilst this ... Determining the onset, mechanisms, and seismic hazard risk of reservoir-triggered seismicity (RTS) is difficult. However, the human-induced earthquake (HiQuake) database reports that about 15% of ...Induced seismicity is occurring at strated with the injection of fluids in deep the 315-m-high Nurek dam in Tadjikistan, USSR. wells (Raleigh et al., 1976).

Myths and facts on wastewater injection, hydraulic fracturing, enhanced oil recovery, and induced seismicity The central United States has undergone a dramatic increase in seismicity over the past 6 years (Fig. 1), rising from an average of 24 M≥3 earthquakes per year in the years 1973–2008 to an average of 193 M≥3 earthquakes in 2009 ...Mitigating mining-induced seismicity is a major technical challenge, and might become a limiting factor to the industry (e.g., Tang et al., 2010). During the ~ 50-year period 1949-1997, over 2000 coal bursts occurred in 33 mines in China, killing several hundred people and costing > 1300 days in lost production ( Tang et al., 2010 ).Earthquakes can occur naturally or they can be caused by human activity, which is referred to as induced seismicity. The disposal of water produced in conjunction with oil and natural gas extraction is a human activity that has been linked to induced seismicity. Earthquakes in Kansas. From 1981 through 2010, Kansas experienced 30 recorded ... The existing data suggest that the induced seismicity is here most likely to be caused by the regional (intraplate) stresses driving the displacements along the orthogonal network of the faults ...TexNet-CISR also manages the Regional Induced Seismicity Collaborative (RISC). The state geologic surveys of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, New Mexico, and Arkansas, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy and the Ground Water Protection Council, have formed a collaborative research project to address the issues of induced seismicity in the ...

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Induced seismicity observed during Enhanced Geothermal Stimulation at Otaniemi, Finland is modeled using both statistical and physical approaches. The physical model produces simulations closest to the observations when assuming rate-and-state friction for shear failure with diffusivity matching the pressure build-up at the well-head at onset ...Fluid injection can trigger seismicity through various mechanisms including pore pressure diffusion 1,2, aseismic slip 3 and poroelastic stressing 4,5.The speeds and spatial extents at which these ...28 sept 2022 ... Towards an understanding of the earthquake process for natural and induced seismicity. 243 views · Streamed 1 year ago ...more. Earth Sciences ...Induced seismicity, however, is intrinsically inhomogeneous in time and space and may have a limited catalog of events; this may hamper the distinction between human-induced background events and ...SUMMARY. Monitoring mining-induced seismicity (MIS) can help engineers understand the rock mass response to resource extraction. With a thorough understanding of ongoing geomechanical processes, engineers can operate mines, especially those mines with the propensity for rockbursting, more safely and efficiently.Now MIT researchers, working with an interdisciplinary team of scientists from industry and academia, have developed a method to manage such human-induced seismicity, and have demonstrated that the technique successfully reduced the number of earthquakes occurring in an active oil field.

The triggering of fluid injection-induced seismicity has become a key hazard in the recovery of geothermal energy, shale gas, petroleum, and natural gas and in the underground disposal of wastewater (Cornet, 2015; Ellsworth, 2013; Elsworth et al., 2016; McGarr et al., 2015; Weingarten et al., 2015).There are many possible causes of earthquakes, or seismicity. Many, of course, are naturally occurring from tectonic forces. Some quakes can be human-induced, and this is called “induced seismicity.”. Seismicity may be induced by depletion of subsurface fluids, by hydraulic fracturing activity, by the collapse of subsurface mines or caverns ...Induced Seismicity. Induced seismicity is typically defined as smaller magnitude earthquakes (3.0 or below) that are caused by changes of the stress and strain in the earth due to human activity. Although most induced earthquakes are smaller magnitude, there are several induced earthquakes that are a magnitude 4.0 or greater.Summary. This paper presents a case study of fault reactivation and induced seismicity during multistage hydraulic fracturing in Sichuan Basin, China. The field microseismicity data delineate a fault activated near the toe of the horizontal well. The spatio-temporal characteristics of the microseismicity indicate that the seismic activity on the fault during the first three stages is directly ...Induced seismicity is strongly related to various engineering projects that cause anthropogenic in-situ stress change at a great depth. Hence, there is a need to estimate and mitigate the associated risks. In the past, various simulation methods have been developed and applied to induced seismicity analysis, but there is still a fundamental difference between simulation results and field ...Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies. This report identifies gaps in knowledge and research needed to advance the understanding of induced seismicity; identifies gaps in induced seismic hazard assessment methodologies and the research to close those gaps; and assesses options for steps toward best practices with regard to energy ...Overview Publications As part of our work to better understand areas of induced earthquakes, the USGS installs seismometers in areas of increased …Efforts in integrating these technological means will help advance geomechanics and induced seismicity-related research that contributes to resolving challenging issues in the exploitation of underground energy and resources. Research topic aims to focus on the most recent theoretical, experimental, and technological advances in Geomechanics ...At hydrothermal conditions, all gouges show slight velocity-weakening to velocity-neutral behavior, which is indicative of potentially unstable fault slip. Our results have important implications for understanding the fault stability behavior and induced seismicity during hydraulic fracturing in granite geothermal reservoirs.Anthropogenic causes or induced seismicity. Induced seismicity refers to typically minor earthquakes and tremors that are caused by human activity that alters the stresses and strains on the Earth’s crust. Most induced seismicity is of a low magnitude.Induced seismicity can be also related to underground gas storage operations. The 2013 September-October seismic sequence occurred 21 km off the coast of the Valencia Gulf (Spain) is probably the most known case of induced seismicity related to Underground Gas Storage operations (the Castor Project). In September 2013, after the injection ...

We confirmed newly detected HF-induced seismicity in Live Oak county did not occur until January 2019. Despite similar cumulative volume prior to and after 2019, the onset of detectable seismicity did not occur until HF injection exceeded 2 million barrels per month over this area, supporting the notion that injection flux is a stronger ...

Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies identifies gaps in knowledge and research needed to advance the understanding of induced seismicity; identify gaps in induced seismic hazard assessment methodologies and the research to close those gaps; and assess options for steps toward best practices with regard to energy development and ... The induced seismicity is also essential for visualizing fracture network distribution when evaluating hydraulic fracturing effectiveness (Hanano, 2004). However, this hydraulic stimulation method in part of these EGS projects also caused large magnitude earthquakes, which exceed public acceptance, cause casualties and lead to potential damage ...May 26, 2020 · Close correlations between hydraulic stimulations and seismicity over a period of 2 years and in-depth seismological analysis led to the conclusion that the M w 5.5 earthquake was induced 21. ... 1 Introduction [2] Significant seismicity induced or triggered in gas/oil reservoirs by pore pressure increase due to fluid injection or stress due to depletion is known from different regions [e.g., Kanamori and Hauksson, 1992; Dahm et al., 2007; Lei et al., 2008].The number of cases of such seismicity has increased over the past decade as the amount of deep fluid injection has risen.1 Introduction [2] Significant seismicity induced or triggered in gas/oil reservoirs by pore pressure increase due to fluid injection or stress due to depletion is known from different regions [e.g., Kanamori and Hauksson, 1992; Dahm et al., 2007; Lei et al., 2008].The number of cases of such seismicity has increased over the past decade as the amount of deep fluid injection has risen.We compile published examples of induced earthquakes that have occurred since 1929 that have magnitudes equal to or greater than 1.0. Of the 198 possible ...These two recent examples of induced seismicity have demonstrated that Ohio is a good target region for establishing how earthquake hazards may be influenced by human activities. Foremost, Ohio has a relatively low background seismicity rate with ~4 recorded events per year between 1990 and 2004. By comparison, Ohio has seen that number jump to ...

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Feb 6, 2020 · In addition to tectonism, seismicity can be induced by the addition or removal of either surface water or groundwater and by the injection or removal of fluids due to industrial activity 3,4. In ... Abstract. The aim of the current study, IGCCS (2017–2020), is to evaluate the feasibility of micro-seismic (MS) monitoring of CO 2 injection into representative storage candidates in the North Sea, based on broad and quantitative characterization of relevant subsurface behavior with respect to geology, geomechanics and seismicity.Beginning in 2009, Oklahoma experienced a surge in seismicity. This surge was so large that its rate of magnitude 3 and larger earthquakes exceeded California’s from 2014 through 2017. While these earthquakes have been induced by oil and gas related process, few of these earthquakes were induced by fracking. While wastewater produced during oil and gas drilling has been disposed of by underground injection in this area for many decades, induced seismicity was not a problem until the volumes being ...Induced Seismicity. Robert Westaway, in Environmental and Health Issues in Unconventional Oil and Gas Development, 2016. Introduction. The impact that induced seismicity can have on the energy industry is graphically illustrated by recent events in the United Kingdom (UK), where an exploratory fracking project in the spring of 2011 at Preese Hall in Lancashire (northwest England) caused a ... Induced seismicity (or induced seismology) refers to seismic events that occur at higher than normal rates due to human activity. According to a 2012 report from the National Academy of Sciences, induced seismicity was first detected in the early 20th century. It is known that seismicity can be induced by hydraulic fracturing (HF) for shale gas development due to pore pressure changes in the preexisting faults, poroelastic stress changes caused by high ...Summary. This paper presents a case study of fault reactivation and induced seismicity during multistage hydraulic fracturing in Sichuan Basin, China. The field microseismicity data delineate a fault activated near the toe of the horizontal well. The spatio-temporal characteristics of the microseismicity indicate that the seismic activity on the fault during the first three stages is directly ...Reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS) was first studied by Carder during the investigation of a boulder dam by relating the reservoir loading and earthquake activity.Four damaging earthquakes with magnitudes of over M6 occurred in China, Zambia-Zimbabwe, Greece, and India; these were triggered by the impoundment of artificial water reservoir …Induced seismicity is a limiting factor for the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). Its causal mechanisms are not fully understood, especially those of post-injection seismicity.Induced seismicity — defined as earthquakes associated with human activity — has been a topic of active research for many decades 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9.Induced seismicity can be caused by a range ... ….

Seismicity induced by fluid injection and extraction is a widely observed phenomenon. These earthquakes can exceed magnitudes of M 6 and have the potential to impact on the containment, infrastructure and public perceptions o f safety at CO 2 storage sites. We examine induced seismicity globally using published data from 75 sites dominated by water injection and hydrocarbon extraction to ...1 Introduction [2] Significant seismicity induced or triggered in gas/oil reservoirs by pore pressure increase due to fluid injection or stress due to depletion is known from different regions [e.g., Kanamori and Hauksson, 1992; Dahm et al., 2007; Lei et al., 2008].The number of cases of such seismicity has increased over the past decade as the amount of deep fluid injection has risen.Seismic Monitoring Program. The Oklahoma Geological Survey's Seismic Monitoring Program was established to document and compile information on Oklahoma earthquakes, examine these occurrences, and through extensive research, gain a better understanding of earthquake processes within the state of Oklahoma. Data and discoveries from this research ...1 Introduction. The seismicity at the Groningen field, in The Netherlands, has triggered several studies aiming at improving our knowledge about seismicity induced by reservoir depletion (see Candela et al., 2018; Van Geuns & Thienen-Visser, 2017, for a review).The recent, relatively large induced earthquake (M 3.4) in January 2018 was another alarm urging to build comprehensive seismological ...Induced seismicity in the Ruhr region has been monitored by the Ruhr University Bochum since 1983 (Bischoff et al. 2010). In this report, we focus on the investigation of induced seismicity following longwall coal mining in the Hamm Heringen region, which is located at the Eastern edge of the Ruhr region. ...Routine earthquake locations with uncertainties of 5 to 10 km and a high magnitude-detection threshold are of limited use. Three particularly well-documented cases of injection-induced seismicity from Colorado illustrate what can be learned when more is known about the pre-injection stress state and seismicity, as well as the injection history.Abstract. The aim of the current study, IGCCS (2017–2020), is to evaluate the feasibility of micro-seismic (MS) monitoring of CO 2 injection into representative storage candidates in the North Sea, based on broad and quantitative characterization of relevant subsurface behavior with respect to geology, geomechanics and seismicity.In terms of seismicity, however, the potential for inducing seismicity in the underlying basement rocks is critical [Zoback and Gorelick, 2012; Vilarrasa and Carrera, 2015]. Therefore, the analysis of the potential earthquakes induced by fluid injection requires us to consider the hydrological and mechanical properties of basement rocks and faults.A physics-based numerical approach is used to characterize earthquake ground motion due to induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field and to improve empirical ground motion models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. To this end, a large-scale (20 km × 20 km) heterogeneous 3D seismic wave propagation model for the Groningen area is ...For sliding-induced seismicity (blue markers in Fig. 15), the magnitude of each event is calculated based on the sliding distance and rupture area of each individual fracture as well as the shear modulus (i.e. Eq. 14). The hypocenter is assumed to be the midpoint of each sliding fracture. Induced seismicity, Although we understand the basic principles of injection-induced seismicity (10, 11), critical details remain incomplete concerning activation of rupture on a fluid-pressurized fault.For massive saltwater injection into a permeable layer, we believe the primary triggering mechanism is an increase in pore pressure within an expanding …, hazards associated with induced seismicity. This text provides an essential overview for students, researchers and industry professionals interested in unconventional reservoirs. Dr. Mark D. Zoback is the Benjamin M. Page Professor of Geophysics at Stanford University. He conducts research on in situ stress, fault mechanics, and reservoir, Although induced seismicity related to underground injection activities was first observed in the 1960s at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal near Denver, a dramatic increase in earthquake activity in the midcontinent beginning in 2009 focused attention on the potential hazard posed by earthquakes induced by injection., Anthropogenic activity that perturbs the stress in the subsurface can modulate seismicity (e.g. 1,2).Over the last decades, the attention for the societal impact of human-induced earthquakes has ..., Reservoir induced seismicity provides a suitable method for studying the roles of fluid in inducing earthquakes. The fault structure plays a predominant role in the occurrences of earthquakes, and ..., Induced seismicity in the Ruhr region has been monitored by the Ruhr University Bochum since 1983 (Bischoff et al. 2010). In this report, we focus on the investigation of induced seismicity following longwall coal mining in the Hamm Heringen region, which is located at the Eastern edge of the Ruhr region. ..., There are two primary factors that directly affect the predicted probability of moderate earthquakes in the statistical model, that is, the temporal seismicity decay after peak injection and the b value used to describe magnitude distributions. In this comment, we examine the observed range of p and b values and report implications for exceedance probabilities of moderate earthquakes in 2017 ..., Induced seismicity has been recognized as a significant risk faced by carbon storage operations which, in extreme cases, may lead to property damage and complete cessation of storage at a site. Mitigation of this risk first requires an understanding of the current and short-term future seismic hazard. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ..., Unlike some other regions, where induced seismicity was triggered in response to higher injection rates, the Raton Basin's frequency-magnitude and spatiotemporal statistics are not distinguishable from tectonic seismicity. The similarity suggests that seismicity in the Raton Basin is predominantly releasing tectonic stress., hydraulic fracturing - induced seismicity in this region are based on. the use of a traffic light protocol (40 )[t r a f f i cl i g h tp r o t o c o l sa r ef e e d b a c k., Monitoring of geothermal reservoir is often a matter of compliance with induced seismicity concerns. In most cases microseismic monitoring is used. When the target is the fluid movement in the reservoir, electromagnetics is a much more suitable method as the signal measures directly the fluid movement in the pore space as strong …, In response to continued seismicity within the Gardendale SRA, RRC has taken a focused response and required seven deep disposal wells with the Gardendale SRA that are within 3 miles of a 3.0 M earthquake to suspend injection effective December 15, 2021, until further notice: Map Index 17 - COG Operating LLC (ConocoPhillips), Ratliff A #3004SW., SUMMARY. It is suggested that fluid injection in normal faulting stress regimes can stabilize a reservoir if the stress path is high enough., Development of AI/ML Data-Driven Algorithms for Assessing the Potential of Induced Seismicity ..... 30 b. Other ..... 31 C57-12RARE EARTH AND CRITICAL ELEMENTS RECOVERY VIA SELECTIVE MEMBRANES: AI/ML-GUIDED MEMBRANE DEVELOPMENT ..., From 2006 through mid-2018, there have been 125 Mw ≥ 2.5 recorded earthquakes within the Fort Worth Basin and the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. There is general scientific consensus that this increase in seismicity has been induced by increases in pore-fluid pressure from wastewater injection and from cross-fault pore-pressure ..., The potential for fault activation and induced seismicity associated with underground fluid injection during GCS activities, has been the subject of a number of modeling studies in recent years (Cappa & Rutqvist, 2011; Jha & Juanes, 2014; Rutqvist et al., 2016; Vilarrasa et al., 2019). Fault reactivation mechanisms involve complex coupled ..., induced seismicity provided that proper site characterization, monitoring and pressure management are performed. There are several factors that favor the low induce seismicity, Earthquakes can occur naturally or they can be caused by human activity, which is referred to as induced seismicity. The disposal of water produced in conjunction with oil and natural gas extraction is a human activity that has been linked to induced seismicity. Earthquakes in Kansas. From 1981 through 2010, Kansas experienced 30 recorded ... , Over the past few years injection-induced seismicity (IIS) has become an increasingly important issue that Earth scientists working in the geothermal, mining, petroleum and other industries must ..., induced seismicity in EGS projects. The Protocol concludes that with proper study and technology development induced seismicity will not only be mitigated, but will become a useful tool for reservoir management. This Protocol is a living guidance document for geothermal developers, public officials, regulators and the general, Human activities have disrupted the balance of underground coal and rock stresses, increasing the risk of seismicity, with incomplete statistics suggesting that 37% of human-induced seismicity is caused by mining (Wilson et al. 2017).To reduce these risks associated with mining operations, many seismology and mining researchers have …, Oct 19, 2017 · Induced seismicity model fitting of six fluid injection experiments: 1994 German Continental Deep Drilling Program (KTB); 1994 Paradox Valley, United States; 2006 Basel, Switzerland; 2011 Garvin ... , Induced Seismicity NEPA Review Induced seismicity refers to small earthquakes (typically between a magnitude of 1.0 and 3.5 on the Richter scale) that may occur as a result of human activity. Activities such as stimulating a geothermal reservoir or injecting fluid to replenish a geothermal reservoir may cause induced seismicity. BACKGROUND, Myths and facts on wastewater injection, hydraulic fracturing, enhanced oil recovery, and induced seismicity The central United States has undergone a dramatic increase in seismicity over the past 6 years (Fig. 1), rising from an average of 24 M≥3 earthquakes per year in the years 1973–2008 to an average of 193 M≥3 earthquakes in 2009 ..., However, more recently induced seismicity has also been tied to hydraulic fracturing both in the Horn River Basin of NE British Columbia [BCOGC, 2012] and in the Fox Creek area of Alberta [Novakovic et al., 2014]. Clearly, such seismicity is of concern to industry, regulators, and the general public. All of the recent syntheses [CCA, 2014; NRC ..., Previous analysis of the induced seismicity at Soultz-sous-Forêts yields contradicting results concerning the spatial distribution of the induced seismicity. Michelet and Toksöz [24] apply the collapsing method described in Jones and Stewart [12] to seismicity induced during the stimulation of GPK3 and obtain a volumetric rather than a planar ..., Feb 27, 2018 · Butch Will. UIC Area of Review, Case Review Engineer. (405) 522-5799. Last Modified on Aug 21, 2023. The mission of the ISD/UIC Departments is: To mitigate the risk of induced seismicity in Oklahoma related to Oil and Gas activity Ensure the utmost stewardship of Oil and Gas data submitted to and maintained by the Corporation Commission Instill ... , Induced seismicity is typically earthquakes and tremors that are caused by human activity that alters the stresses and strains on Earth's crust. Most induced seismicity is of a low magnitude. A few sites regularly have larger quakes, such as The Geysers geothermal plant in California which … See more, Mar 28, 2016 · Induced seismicity refers to non-tectonic (i.e., non-natural) earthquakes that result from human activities that alter the stresses and strains on the Earth’s crust. There are many activities that can cause induced earthquakes including: wastewater disposal, mining, development of artificial lakes, extraction of fossil fuels, extraction of ... , Finally, we discuss how our results contribute to the current understanding of induced seismicity and shed light on the complex interactions between fluid and rocks that create and propagate fractures. 2 Data and Methodology 2.1 Microseismic Monitoring Experiment. The schematic diagram of the wells and geophone positions is shown in …, Induced seismicity can be also related to underground gas storage operations. The 2013 September-October seismic sequence occurred 21 km off the coast of the Valencia Gulf (Spain) is probably the most known case of induced seismicity related to Underground Gas Storage operations (the Castor Project). In September 2013, after the injection ..., Butch Will. UIC Area of Review, Case Review Engineer. (405) 522-5799. Last Modified on Aug 21, 2023. The mission of the ISD/UIC Departments is: To mitigate the risk of induced seismicity in Oklahoma related to Oil and Gas activity Ensure the utmost stewardship of Oil and Gas data submitted to and maintained by the Corporation Commission Instill ..., Traffic light schemes (TLSs) are commonly used to mitigate induced seismicity caused by subsurface fluid injection. Verdon and Bommer (J Seismol 25:301-326, 2021a) investigated the validity of the implicit assumptions that underpin the successful functioning of TLSs. In particular, they examined the extent to which magnitude jumps (sudden increases in event magnitudes from any preceding ...